\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u65bc\u6982\u7387\u6027\u8cea\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8cea\u6027\u7279\u5fb5\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e00\u4e9b\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e6b\u52a9\u4f60\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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1. \u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u64ec<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u64ec\uff08Monte Carlo simulation\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u6a21\u64ec\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002\u5728\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u4f60\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u904e\u751f\u6210\u5927\u91cf\u96a8\u6a5f\u865f\u78bc\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4f86\u6a21\u64ec\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u7684\u958b\u734e\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u901a\u904e\u591a\u6b21\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u7b97\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002

\u4ee5\u5927\u6a02\u900f\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u8a72\u904a\u6232\u8981\u6c42\u9078\u64c7 5 \u500b\u4e3b\u6578\u5b57\u548c 1 \u500b\u7279\u5225\u865f\u78bc\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u842c\u6b21\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u865f\u78bc\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8a08\u7b97\u591a\u5c11\u6b21\u4e2d\u4e86\u982d\u734e\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6a21\u64ec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u4f60\u7406\u89e3\u4e2d\u734e\u6982\u7387\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u898f\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n
<\/p>\nA Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. It is a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to tackle a range of problems in many fields including investing, business, physics, and engineering. When faced with significant uncertainty in making a forecast or estimate, some methods replace the uncertain variable with a single average number. The Monte Carlo Simulation instead uses multiple values and then averages the results. (\u539f\u6587\u51fa\u8655<\/a>)<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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2. \u671f\u671b\u503c\u8a08\u7b97<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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\u4ee5\u522e\u522e\u6a02\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u82b1\u8cbb 100 \u53f0\u5e63\u8cfc\u8cb7\u4e00\u5f35\u522e\u522e\u6a02\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u548c\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u734e\u91d1\u91d1\u984d\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u8a08\u7b97\u6bcf\u500b\u734e\u9805\u7684\u6982\u7387\u548c\u734e\u91d1\uff0c\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u4f60\u53c3\u8207\u9019\u500b\u522e\u522e\u6a02\u904a\u6232\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u70ba\u6b63\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9019\u500b\u904a\u6232\u5c0d\u4f60\u4f86\u8aaa\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\u4f7f\u7528\u6578\u5b78\u5de5\u5177\u5236\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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5. \u9078\u64c7\u9069\u5408\u7684\u904a\u6232\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6027\u8cea\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4f60\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u548c\u98a8\u96aa\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u9069\u5408\u7684\u904a\u6232\u3002

6. \u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u8ca0\u8cac\u4efb\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u6c89\u6eba\u65bc\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8ffd\u8d95\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5f71\u97ff\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u958b\u652f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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3A<\/a>\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u7d50\u8a9e<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5a1b\u6a02\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u53d7\u6578\u5b78\u898f\u5f8b\u7684\u7d04\u675f\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u4e2d\u734e\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u904b\u7528\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u64ec\u548c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u8a08\u7b97\u7b49\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u4f60\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u5730\u53c3\u8207\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u4f60\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u8a18\u4f4f\uff0c\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5a1b\u6a02\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4eab\u53d7\u904a\u6232\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u8a18\u6578\u5b78\u662f\u4f60\u8d0f\u5f97\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u597d\u670b\u53cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a \u591a\u4eba\u6355\u9b5a\u6a5f2\u5927\u7372\u5229\u653b\u7565\uff01<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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